This article will pick apart three long-standing myths regarding federal elections in NDG and our riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grace–Westmount:
The Liberal party ‘owns’ this riding.
Aside from the 2011 ‘Orange Wave,’ the NDP has never been competitive in the riding.
The New Democrats have always done better on the island of Montreal (including NDG) than in the rural regions of Quebec.
However, before we can start to fully examine these myths, it is important to have a decent understanding the party’s electoral history from the very beginning.
The CCF Years in NDG
The Cooperative Commonwealth Federation (commonly referred as the CCF) came into being during the early years of the Great Depression in Canada. The reason why was quite simple: capitalism appeared to have failed as an economic system and neither the federal Liberal Party nor the Conservatives had a clue how to make things ‘right’ again. The CCF was a democratic-socialist party that believed that the Canadian economy needed to be centrally ‘planned’ – by the federal government. The party also believed that people should be placed before profits, and that the general well-being of Canadian citizens (through programs like universal medical care, collective bargaining rights, and improved old-age pension benefits, among many others) was the chief role of government. Unlike other socialist movements of the time, the CCF adhered to the belief that such a government must be an elected one. In short, they wanted to change the system by working through the existing political structure.
Fair enough. But how did the party perform in NDG during these early years? That is hard to tell. The riding of ‘NDG’ did not exist (at the federal level) until the 1949 election. In the three previous general elections, the party only contested a handful of Quebec’s seats in the House of Commons. It is true that the party did field candidates in 15 of the 16 Montreal area ridings in 1945, but the area we know as NDG today was part of several districts at the time. It makes it close to impossible to determine the level of support the party enjoyed in those early CCF campaigns.
From 1949 through 1958, the CCF numbers in NDG are much more obvious to assess. They were lousy; consistent, but lousy. In each of the four elections held at this time, the party garnered, 3.4% (1949), 3.5% (1953), 2.4% (1957) and 3.4% (1958). During this period, the party was centred in Montreal and among those constituencies, the NDG CCF did not fare well to these other urban ridings, ranking 10th of 13, 6th of 13, 17th of 18, and 13th of 19, respectively. Clearly, the party’s message nor its candidates were impressing the good citizens of Notre-Dame-de-Grace.
You know who the voters in NDG favoured during this era: the Conservative Party. After a steady stream of massive Liberal landslides on Montreal Island (including what became known as NDG), the federal Conservatives won the riding in 1953, 1957, and 1958. Indeed, in those last two elections the Tories captured nearly 60% of the tally from NDG residents!
The Road to Respectability
In 1961, the New Democratic Party came into existence. The new party consisted of the remnants of the CCF, the Canadian Labour Congress, and ‘liberally-minded’ persons who joined ‘New Party’ clubs prior to the formal creation of the NDP. The idea behind this was to increase the base that came from the CCF and resources (read volunteers and money) from the unions, to make social democracy more appealing to Canadians.
In Notre-Dame-de-Grace, it was obvious that this new amalgamation of the party was scoring better than had the CCF. In their first election, the New Democrats broke into double digits (10.7%) under candidate C. G. Gifford. He was an academic and activist against nuclear weapons as well as an advocate for the rights of seniors. Gifford would run in four consecutive elections for the party in NDG. The following year, Gifford cracked the 15% threshold, leaving the NDP just three percent behind the second-place Conservatives in the riding.
The 1960s saw a series of minority parliaments and this created a series of elections. Two years later, Canadian voters would head back to the polls once again. In NDG, the Liberal incumbent, Edmund Tobin Asselin, decided to step down after reclaiming the seat for the party in 1962 and 1963. Warren Allmand was named the Liberal candidate for the 1965 campaign. Running in his third election, Gifford nearly upset the Liberal coronation by capturing just under 33% of the vote – compared to Allmand’s 41%. The Conservatives garnered 25% of the votes. Clearly, with the Liberals running a ‘new’ candidate, voters in the riding were willing to consider another party. The Liberals ‘lost’ 12,000 votes in NDG – while Gifford gained 7,000 from the 1963 election. His showing was the best of any candidate in Quebec for the NDP.
The New Democrats won 20% of the vote in Montreal and 12% across the province. These results were the best the party had experienced in Quebec. Unfortunately, for the NDP, these increased votes did not translate into any seats. Still, it was significantly better than during the CCF era and provided a measure of hope for the party in the riding and the province.
Alas, that 1965 election saw three impressive Quebec Liberals enter the House of Commons: Jean Marchand, Gérard Pelletier, and Pierre Trudeau. The quick ascension to the Prime Minister’s position by Trudeau helped cement Quebec voters to the Liberal brand. It also thwarted the New Democrat momentum in the province.
There is no easy way to say it; the New Democratic Party in Quebec and in the riding of NDG struggled for the remainder of the century. Allmand became a fixture in the House of Commons as he represented NDG until 1997. His only ‘close’ call came during the Mulroney landslide of 1984, when his Conservative opponent, journalist Nick Auf der Maur, came within 2,000 votes of defeating Allmand. The New Democrats were non-factors in the campaigns during Allmand’s reign. When Gifford managed to capture 20% of the vote for the party in 1968, it marked the last time the party would meet that plateau for the remainder of the century.
Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, the NDP hovered around 10% in the Notre-Dame-de-Grace district. Even with these underwhelming numbers, the local party often finished in the top ten ‘best’ ridings for the NDP in Quebec. That started to change in the late 1980s. In the 1988 federal election, the New Democrats had their strongest showing in the province with over 14% of the vote in Ed Broadbent’s last campaign as leader. Strangely, the tally for the party in NDG dipped to 12% - the 44th best riding of Quebec’s 75 districts.
The party’s downward trend only accelerated in the 1990s. The 1993 election found the NDP back to numbers the party had not seen since the CCF era. It pulled in a little over 3.5%, while Allmand romped to an easy win with 70% of the vote in his final campaign. Allmand’s retirement before the 1997 election might have offered the NDP a chance to rebound in the riding; it didn’t. While Allmand’s successor, Marlene Jennings, saw the Liberal Party vote dip to 56%, very little of that vote found its way to the New Democrats. Candidate André Cardinal edged the NDP up to 4.3%. In the subsequent 2000 election, the party (under Bruce Toombs) inched the party to 4.7% of the tally. As grisly as the NDG’s results were, they still easily beat the NDP’s dismal overall showing in Quebec (1.5%, 2.0%, and 1.8%, respectively). Clearly, this is a chapter the party would prefer to forget.
Modest gains and an unexpected breakthrough
The boundaries of the riding had shifted prior to the 1997 campaign. The new district encompassed a large section of Lachine and well as Notre-Dame-de-Grace. As we have seen, the new configuration had little impact on the results for the NDP. However, the arrival of Jack Layton as party leader and the per-vote subsidy had a positive impact on the federal New Democrats. However, it would take a while before the party was more competitive in the renamed Notre-Dame-de-Grace–Lachine riding.
Like the 1960s, the 2000s witnessed a string of minority governments. With that came frequent elections. Throughout the decade, NDP fortunes improved in both NDG and across the province for the federal party.
In Layton’s first campaign as New Democratic leader, the party climbed to almost five percent in the province of Quebec. Not anything to write home about (though, strangely, I might have), it still was a marked improvement for the party. Locally, candidate Maria Pia Chavez garnered just under eight percent of the tally in NDG-Lachine. This was best numbers the NDP experienced in NDG since the late 1980s. As modest as these gains were, they represented the beginning of a trend that augured better days.
Less than two years later, Canadians were back at the polls once again. While likely chagrined with the advent of Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Ottawa, locally, the party continued its upward trajectory. Peter Deslauriers, a retired college professor, pulled the NDP in NDG-Lachine to double digits for the first time since 1988 (11.2%). Province-wide, the New Democrats edged up to 7.5% of the vote.
Since Harper was given a minority to work, Canadians could reasonably expect to find themselves at polling stations in the near future. In the fall of 2008, another election was held. Harper was denied his desired majority – while the NDP continued to post improved results. With Deslauriers running for the New Democrats once again, the party eclipsed the 15 percent mark for the first time since 1968 – 40 years! In addition, the New Democrats captured over 12 percent of the vote in Quebec. Furthermore, the party won its first-ever seat in a general election in the province (Tom Mulcair in Outremont).
In 2011, well, we all know what happened then. Still, it is nice to recall the ‘glory day’ when the NDP became Canada’s Official Opposition; largely on the ‘Orange Wave’ that swept across Quebec. A combination of events – an outstanding campaign and debate performance by Jack Layton, an abysmal Liberal leader (Michael Ignatieff), and a general malaise towards the Bloc Quebecois – all put a lot of wind in New Democrat sails. By the time the votes had been tallied on election night, Layton had carried the party to victory in 59 of Quebec’s 75 seats (on the strength of 43% of the vote). One of those seats was Notre-Dame-de-Grace–Lachine. Here, the NDP’s Isabelle Morin, a part-time educator from the Quebec City region, collected nearly 40 percent of the votes to unseat Marlene Jennings (32%). It was a day New Democrats had long sought and, for once, the party could, reasonably, be seen as a potential government. The lone down side (and it is a steep one, at that) to this 2011 election was that it provided Stephen Harper with a majority government.
After the Wave
Well, we all know what happened after that. It is painful to recall the shock of a frail Jack Layton, stepping down (temporarily) as leader to battle cancer once again. Sadly, Layton would not win this fight. Party members and supporters could only surmise, ‘What if….” Alas, after the tributes and ceremonies faded, the question asked was, “What would become of the NDP?”
This bit is hard to put to paper. Hopes were elevated in 2015. Polls conducted early in 2015, had the NDP under new leader, Tom Mulcair, hovering around 20 percent. The New Democrats were still looking up at Harper’s Conservatives and Justin Trudeau’s rejuvenated Liberal Party. Yet, the party clawed back into contention by a principled stand on anti-terrorism legislation, a faltering performance by Trudeau, and the unexpected victory of Rachel Notley’s NDP in Alberta. If New Democrats could win in the most conservative province in the country, why couldn’t they win a federal election?
Soft Liberal voters gave the NDP another look and by late spring, the party was the most popular one across Canada. Locally, there were new riding boundaries and name. Notre-Dame-de-Grace–Westmount was created. This was not a positive development for the NDP as voters in Westmount tended to be extremely loyal to the Liberal brand (Indeed, they narrowly re-elected Marc Garneau in the Westmount–Ville-Marie riding in 2011). Still, with sufficient funds, and visits from the party leader and the iconic Stephen Lewis, the party hoped to ease the Liberal incumbent into retirement. The NDP nominee was James Hughes, the former head of the Old Brewery Mission.
The New Democrats held the lead until early September. However, successive solid debate performances by Trudeau and a Liberal party platform that appeared more progressive than what the NDP was offering, helped to turn the tide. By the time this long campaign completed, Marc Garneau easily won this ‘new’ riding with nearly 58% of the vote. James Hughes finished a distant second with 22% of the tally (even though the party spent over $120,000 in this riding). Across Quebec, the NDP lost 43 of its 59 seats and dipped to 25.4% of the vote.
Recent Campaigns
Four years later, the tide really went out for the NDP in Quebec. With Jagmeet Singh at the helm of the federal party, it is fair to say that a large number of Quebecers were ‘uncomfortable’ with him. The party lost 15 of its 16 seats and dipped to just under 11% in the province. Franklin Gertler, a social justice attorney and environmental activist, took up the mantle for the party in NDG-Westmount. The party finished second with 15.4% of the vote. Incumbent Garneau cruised to victory in the riding (56%). A strong Green Party showing (10%) may have cut into NDP support in NDG.
The 2021 election was a carbon-copy of the one that proceeded it. Voters continued to stay away from the party in Quebec. Results indicated the party was now supported by only one in ten Quebec voter. The one seat (Alexandre Boulerice) remained, but ridings where the party could be considered ‘competitive’ were few. Locally, the NDP in NDG nearly doubled the average result for the party. Under candidate Emma Elbourne-Weinstock, the NDP made up some ground, climbing to just over 19 percent. For the third time in as many elections, the party came in second place in the riding. Marc Garneau was easily re-elected with a slightly reduced majority (54%).
In March 2023, Garneau resigned his seat in the House of Commons. If history was to hold true, the Liberal share of the vote would significantly drop in the ensuing by-election. It did not. Instead, it was the local NDP that witnessed the greatest loss in vote share. The NDP tally dipped from 19.2% in 2021 to 13.9% in this election. Despite the reversal, the New Democrats could claim second place in the riding, finishing narrowly in front of the Conservatives and a resurgent Green Party. Voter turnout was under 30%, which is quite low – even by by-election standards. The riding association is examining what led to this drop in New Democrat support and you can expect the results of that finding in a future newsletter.
The party may have little time for navel-gazing. A new chapter may begin very soon with rumours of a possible election call for later this year or in the first half of 2024. Whenever the writ is dropped, hopefully, the next election will produce happier results for both the federal and the local NDP.
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